Seeing 2020: Predict Nintendo's year in games



  • Everyone loves game speculation, so let's make a game out of speculating how far along development is and what unknown reveals are in the works for 2020.

    I thought a lot about how to structure this as a game and not just a straight prediction thread, and I felt it was much better to focus on trailer dates and game details ("announcement level events"), rather than release dates, delays, metascores and so on ("launch level events").

    Also, originally this was going to include "all high profile games", not just Nintendo published ones. However it was easier to come up with a good list that would fit the game well this way. (The trick seems to be that enough people need to care about it, and also where trailer date isn't just an obvious "during E3" or "1 month before the already announced release date".).

    If there is enough interest, we can try putting together a more expansive list for a second thread, possibly with modified categories. In fact: if someone wants to take the lead on that, be my guest! Edit: given the reception, it is probably best to see how this works first.

    Here's a nice list of games I came up that we will use as a "Common Score Sheet". That is, everyone should make predictions for these games in addition to whatever extra random games you would like to predict.

    Guess the trailer date (and optionally new details) for these games currently announced:

    • Breath of the Wild 2
    • Metroid Prime 4
    • Bayonetta 3
    • Pikmin 4

    Guess the trailer date (and optionally new details) for these games currently unannounced:

    • Next Pokemon title
    • Next Mario Platformer title
    • A Metroid Prime Trilogy collection
    • A Zelda remake/remaster

    Guess the character identity (and optionally the trailer date) for these unannounced characters:

    • Smash Bros. Ultimate: 'Fighter Pass 2' DLC characters

    Optionally guess the trailer dates and/or details for any Nintendo published game(s) you choose that you come up with, announced or unannounced. But do include the above list at minimum so there is a common point of comparison at the end of the year.

    To submit you predictions, use the format in my reply below.

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    Just for completeness, here's how everyone's prediction accuracy is going to be measured:

    Worth 1 point each: correctly predicting a trailer date, at least to within one the following 6 date ranges:

    • before Spring (Jan 1 - March 19)
    • Spring, but before E3 (March 20 - June 5)
    • E3 "week" (June 6-12)
    • after E3, but before October (June 13 - Sept 30)
    • October to New Year's Eve (Oct 1 - Dec 31)
    • not in 2020 (includes "never")

    It would be no fun if you had to get the date exactly correct, and grouping dates into 6 buckets is a lot simpler than giving a variable number of points based on how many days off you were.

    [Note 1: This is for games only. Smash DLC gets a separate category below.]
    [Note 2: only the first trailer of the year counts. Announcement logos count as "a trailer" if it is part of a video presentation, like a Nintendo Direct. For this category I don't want to delve into "non-video" tweets, press releases, investor briefings, or whatever.]

    Worth 1 point each: correctly predict a new detail about the game. e.g. "Zelda is playable in BoTW2"

    (notes on this category: you don't have to correctly guess the trailer's date range to earn this point. Additionaly, the new detail in question does not have to be tied to the trailer, it can be communicated at any point during the year.)

    Worth 1 point each: correctly predict any unannounced Nintendo published game that gets officially revealed in 2020.

    (This is worth a separate point from guessing the date range, i.e. you earn 1 point for simply predicting that it would happen in 2020. This category also doesn't have to be "a trailer", the announcement just has to happen this year. You automatically make your prediction in this category if you guess a 2020 date range for the trailer.)

    Worth 1-2 points each: correctly predict the identity and trailer date of any unannounced Smash character that gets officially revealed in 2020.

    (1 point for guessing the identity, and the second point if you also can nail the correct date range. Smash predictions must have a specific identity to be worth any points. You don't earn points for the date range if you don't also get the identity correct.)

    (Any other obvious games or categories that I'm missing?)

    Final note: I'm aware that earning points for "not in 2020" gets weird when you are also in control of the first part of the guess (that is to say when you are predicting a specific unannounced game or Smash character.) The reason is that it is easy to name something incredibly unlikely and give yourself an easy point (like "Doomguy in Smash --> not in 2020"). On the other hand, this is a fun way to create jokes or act as a contratian to previous posts. I think we should allow it, but we won't necessarily take those points very seriously at the end of the year, cause it's all meaningless anyway. Cool? The same goes for the "guess a new detail" category if you were to simply predict details that are incredibly likely.



  • Think I made something like this awhile back for the big 3 and bloodworth just combined them all into one thread.
    (Will post after dinner)



  • @DMCMaster If there was going to another thread then I was actually thinking of just two threads, not one for each publisher. My belief is that it is more fun if there is a specially curated list of about 10 games in the OP that everyone is competing in. If the provided list in the OP is too vast or not compelling enough, then people don't want to participate. Originally I actually only wanted one thread using every publisher with around 10 games total, but too many games I wanted to include felt like they would be poor candidates for "guess the trailer date"



  • well we already know Animal Crossing, No More Heroes 3, Tokyo Mirage Sessions and Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive edition are all coming.



  • My predictions for the trailer date ranges, details, and Smash characters:

    Common Score Sheet:
    Breath of the Wild 2 ..... E3 week ~ ~ both Link and Zelda are playable characters
    Metroid Prime 4 ..... October to New Year's Eve ~ ~ the scenario doesn't involve Phazon
    Bayonetta 3 ..... E3 Week
    Pikmin 4 ..... After E3, Before October

    Next Pokemon Title ..... Spring, but before E3
    Next Mario Platformer title ..... not in 2020
    A Zelda remake/remaster ..... not in 2020
    Metroid Prime Trilogy Collection ..... not in 2020

    Smash: Edelgard ..... E3 Week
    Smash: Monster Hunter/Huntress ..... E3 Week
    Smash: Aloy ..... After E3, before October
    Smash: "Minecraft Steve" ..... October to New Year's Eve

    Extra predictions for unannounced games:
    Paper Mario Game ..... E3 Week
    Kirby Game ..... Before Spring ~ ~ traditional style Kirby game
    Kid Icarus Game ..... E3 Week ~ ~ new sequel with more than 1 playable character
    F-Zero Game ..... E3 Week ~ ~ crossover with another franchise



  • @yoshi said in Seeing 2020: Predict Nintendo's year in games:

    well we already know Animal Crossing, No More Heroes 3, Tokyo Mirage Sessions and Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive edition are all coming.

    I want to keep this to Nintendo published stuff, so No More Heroes 3 isn't part of the equation. The other 3 are all locked down and arriving relatively soon, which I felt made them less interesting to include as part of the OP list. It's up to you though if you want to make extra predictions with them. Otherwise, the OP list is going to be a sort of "common scorecard" that I encourage everyone to fill out at minimum for purposes of structuring the thread as a community game.



  • I will buy Switch Lite for BotW2 probably. Yeah, it is not exactly related to the thread but I just wanted to say it.



  • I updated the first post to streamline the instructions. For maximum funsies make your predictions soon, before the rumored January direct (which could be in days). If you are reading this far in the future and still want to join in for the remainder of the year, go ahead. (of course, your predictions should only be stuff that isn't know at the time you joined).





  • Correction: it's "Spring but before E3" and not "After Spring" cause otherwise you're referring to a period that doesn't exist considering E3 is still in Spring.

    Common Score Sheet
    Breath of the Wild 2 --- E3 Week --- Hyrule undergrounds are the big hub of the game, but you will also travel to other locations.
    Metroid Prime 4 --- Not in 2020
    Bayonetta 3 --- Before Spring --- Bayonetta's new mechanic is that she can create replicas of herself.
    Pikmin 4 ---- Not in 2020

    Next Pokémon Title ---- Spring but before E3 --- it's an enhanced version of Sword/Shield (similar to Ultra Sun/Ultra Shield)
    Next Mario Platformer ---- E3 Week - direct sequel to Super Mario Odyssey. Delfino Island is coming back.
    Metroid Prime Trilogy ---- After E3 but before October
    A Zelda remake/remaster --- not in 2020.

    Smash: Byleth Eisner - Before Spring
    Smash: Lloyd Irving - E3 Week
    Smash: Crash Bandicoot - E3 Week
    Smash: Arle Nadja - After E3 Before October
    Smash: Travis Touchdown - October to New Year's Eve

    Extra predictions for announced/unannounced games
    Frogger in Toy Town console edition - Before Spring
    Ninjala - Before Spring - They will announce a demo / network test close to the release.
    New Mario Golf --- Before Spring
    Shin Megami Tensei V - Spring, Before E3 - trailer will drop in a Japanese livestream. Shekinah's Glory (Windows of heaven) will reappear again. In the game it will come up in various forms as a blessing or a curse depending on the path you have chosen.
    New Pokémon Battle/Colosseum - Spring, Before E3
    New Wave Race - E3 Week
    Game Boy games coming to Nintendo Switch Online retro catalogue - After E3, Before October
    Dragon Quest IX HD remaster - After E3, Before October.



  • The Pokémon Company messed up some of my predictions already

    Youtube Video

    Let's hope i've got the announcements right.



  • DLC: National DeX for $39.99



  • @dmcmaster that cheap?



  • @gageblackw23 said in Seeing 2020: Predict Nintendo's year in games:

    Smash: Byleth Eisner - Before Spring
    Smash: Lloyd Irving - E3 Week
    Smash: Crash Bandicoot - E3 Week
    Smash: Arle Nadja - After E3 Before October
    Smash: Travis Touchdown - October to New Year's Eve

    One down ✓



  • @GageBlackW23 Nice one, although it occurs to me that Byleth is for DLC pack 1 and the common score sheet happened to specifically state 'Fighters Pass 2' characters. (no idea how to handle that, just keep score however I guess) ┐( ´-`)┌

    On a related note, there's no way my "Edelgard" prediction is going to happen now.



  • @chocobop said in Seeing 2020: Predict Nintendo's year in games:

    @GageBlackW23 Nice one, although it occurs to me that Byleth is for DLC pack 1 and the common score sheet happened to specifically state 'Fighters Pass 2' characters. (no idea how to handle that, just keep score however I guess) ┐( ´-`)┌

    On a related note, there's no way my "Edelgard" prediction is going to happen now.

    Oops i assumed those were just announcements for all 2020 since that was the point of the thread



  • @GageBlackW23 It's still a very nice prediction though and you do earn points for the "free-for-all" predictions, this just happens to be an unintentional corner case that I should have anticipated.